Strikeout Considerations

The premise that MLB functions under is that baseball is on the decline because the games are too long and this has turned off the fan base.  As we noted in prior posts the rule changes do little to change the actual action, and instead just shorten the game.

If you want to buy into the whole fan disillusionment premise, then how about considering the reduction in action.  Although an integral part of the game, strikeouts have been on the rise.  If we look at the historical level of strikeouts these have been increasing fairly consistently but especially in the past seven years, when hitting the 40,000 mark in 2017.  The all-time high mark was in 2019, when there were 42,822 strikeouts, with 2021 a close second at 42,104.  That number dropped in 2022, which was not surprising as the National League adopted the universal designated hitter (DH).  Therefore, the elimination of pitchers hitting in 2022 has led to that decreases, since DH’s are less of a possible strikeout victim as compared to a pitcher.

If we look back to 1998, there were 31,893 strikeouts for the year.  Comparing that to 2022, we see the following number of strikeouts on a per game basis.

We see an almost 9,000 strikeout increase from 1998 to 2022, which is more than 3.5 strikeouts per game. That means that in recent years almost a third of the outs in a game (assuming a nine-inning game) have come by strikeout.  You can find the full historical breakdown of strikeouts check here per Baseball Almanac.

The explanation of the increase in strikeouts in recent years can likely be traced to the emphasis on analytics.  Analytics, which looks positively towards batters that hit home runs, but do not negatively consider strikeouts by batters, within reason.  The focus today is launch angle which emphasizes hitting the balls into the air for home runs, but which has increased the level of strikeouts.  In addition, on the pitcher side, pitchers are throwing harder than ever.  Per this AP article, it notes that, “the average four-seam fastball velocity was 93.9 mph, up from 93.7 mph in 2021 and 93.1 mph in 2015, when Statcast first began measuring”.

This increase in pitcher velocity can be attributed to a couple of factors.  First, pitchers are simply becoming harder throwers, whether through better training, technology and analytics to improve their performance.  In addition, the game has evolved to replace a pitcher at the slightest hint that they may be tiring.  In game, teams have data available to them of a pitchers performance on a pitch-by-pitch basis, so it is easy to determine once they are beginning to tire.  The average pitcher nowadays only throws five or six innings and is then normally replaced with multiple fresh relievers to complete the remaining three or four innings.    Each of these relievers can give it their all since they are normally expected to pitch one inning at a time, so it would not be surprising to know that pitch velocities in later innings probably exceed those of the starter from the early innings.

What does the number of strikeouts and their overall increase mean to the game and the excitement level?  Well one could argue that strikeouts are maybe one of the least interesting parts of the game.  It is a pitcher and a catcher playing a quick game of catch, while seven other fielders look on, but it provides the least amount of action than the other types of outs provide.  At Baseball Purist, we are not suggesting that there is anything fundamentally wrong with strikeouts, but in terms of action one could argue they offer the least amount of excitement.

Again, we do not believe there is anything wrong with the game, but MLB has focused on the decline in interest solely on the length of games. How come they never considered the level of action?  Perhaps then the cause of baseball’s “troubles” might not lie in the length of the game, but instead might be more so on the precipitous drop of balls in play or actual real action.