After just concluding the season, MLB and the media are touting the 6.2 million increase in fans from the prior year (2022) and for the most part believe that the new rule changes were the main factors driving this increase. The current season saw attendance top the 70 million mark for all thirty clubs, which represented a 9.6% increase over the prior season. We kind of predicted MLB eventually crediting the rule changes back in our posts from June 1st and July 3rd of this year, so we are not surprised by this turn of events and with them taking this victory lap.
This article only gives partial credit of the increase to the dissipating threat of the coronavirus, by stating that, “The 2020 season ravaged by COVID-19 was also further in the rear-view mirror for fans who proved slow to return to the stands in ensuing campaigns”. Really!!! Are they trying to state that only 2020 had a negative impact on MLB and all professional sports, and that the subsequent prior years were just getting over that brief shortened season of 2020? Incorrect! Let us refresh the mainstream media and MLB’s memories.
2020 – The season was shortened to only 60 games, while 355,000 in the US died from coronavirus
2021 – Although playing a full slate of games, all teams restricted the number of fans permitted into their ballparks for the 2021 Season. There were 464,000 deaths in the US in this year.
2022 – A full schedule of games and no restrictions on fans, but there were still more than 250,000 deaths in the US in 2022.
Therefore to say that coronavirus was a distant memory from back in 2020 is an absurd position. It is true that many fans came back in 2022 and did not have concerns about coronavirus despite 250k Americans succumbing to the pandemic in that year. One though should not discount the effect of the virus on the public and think that all fans were comfortable returning to stadiums despite the jump in attendance from 45.3 million in 2021 to 64.5 million in 2022. Do we really believe that all or even a majority of fans concerned about coronavirus returned to watch their teams play despite the death toll in 2022?
It seems unlikely.
In total, there have been more than 1.1 million Covid deaths in the US to date. The total deaths and annual percentage of the total deaths are as follows:
- 2020 – 355k (32%)
- 2021 – 464k (42%)
- 2022 – 250k (23%)
- 2023 – 31k (3%)
What this all means is that by 2022, coronavirus was not a distant memory and that to compare 2022 to 2023 attendance figures and attribute the vast majority of the increase to the new rule changes is disingenuous. In reality, we believe it is far more accurate to compare 2019, the year just before the pandemic to this year. If we do that, we get a somewhat different picture. In 2019, total attendance was 68.5 million, which compared to 2023 attendance figures of 70.7 million would show an increase of 2.2 million fans or 3.2%. That is 4 million or 6.4% less fans than what MLB and the mainstream media are touting as the enormous gains in attendance largely attributed to the new rule changes.
Instead, we would argue that the increase this year is largely related to a significant drop in the coronavirus threat in 2023 as seen above. If we see another significant increase in attendance for the 2024 season, we will stand corrected and would be willing to readily admit our mistake. Until that season concludes, we stand by our belief that rule changes are not what drove the increase in fans in 2023.
Baseball Purist 
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