BP was in a discussion recently with a fan who pointed out that in this year’s League Championship Series (LCS), three of the four teams came from small markets. In the past though, BP took the position that it is much better to be a big spending, large market team as noted in our posts Money is Everything, It’s Mostly About the Money and Baseballs Luxury Tax to name a few. Therefore, for the fan who pointed out this year’s trend of small markets making up the majority of the teams in the league championship games, this would seem to be a gotcha moment with BP on the wrong side of the argument. BP instead says, not so fast!
As we pointed out previously, history readily shows that it is best to be a big spending team, which generally assures success. Success for big spenders though is not absolute, just ask Steve_Cohen and his New York Mets. Therefore, the law of averages makes it likely that big spending teams will reach the post-season, but there are obviously no guarantees.
To prove our theory, we examined the past 30 years of LCS (AL and NL Championship) participants and ranked their payrolls from the highest (i.e. 1, 2, 3) to the lowest (i.e. 28, 29, 30), since there are now 30 teams in the league. Note that for the first two years in our analysis (1996 and 1997) there were only 28 clubs back then.
Out of the 120 teams that made the championship rounds in both leagues over the past 30 years, the data overwhelmingly supports how much the system favors big spending clubs:
- Big spenders dominate. 76 of the 120 (63%) teams ranked in the top 10 in payroll, and 49 (41%) ranked in the top 5. The team with the highest payroll reached the LCS 14 times and won the World Series in five of those years (1996, 1999, 2000, 2009 and 2018).
- Low spenders rarely get this far. Only 20 of the 120 (17%) that made the LCS ranked in the bottom half, and only 14 ranked 21st or lower.
- The biggest surprises were the 2008 Rays (29th), the 2024 Guardians (28th), the 2010 and 2020 pennant winners (27th, the Rangers and Rays), and the 2007 Rockies and D-backs (25th and 26th).
- Champions mostly spent. Only three of the 30 champions ranked in the bottom half: the 2003 Marlins (25th), the 2015 Royals (16th) and the 2017 Astros (18th).
In this year’s LCS we had the 2nd highest payroll in the Los Angeles Dodgers facing off against the 19th ranked payroll in the Milwaukee Brewers. On the AL side we had the 28th payroll of the Tampa Rays versus the Cleveland Guardians with the lowest payroll at number 30. This is simply the law of averages taking place, with three teams 19 or lower ranked in payroll reaching the LCS this year. Is this a new trend? Highly doubtful, since it was just a matter of time whereby lower ranked payroll teams would make up the majority of the LCS teams. Not a trend, just an outlier.
BP also took a look at the teams that made the post season this year in terms of payroll ranking. That analysis also reinforces our assertion that big spenders rule. Out of the 12 playoff teams eight [Dodgers (2), Yankees (3), Phillies (4), Braves (6), Cubs (7), Astros (8), Padres (9) and Red Sox (10)] were ranked in the top 10 in club salaries.
Therefore, it is fun to see the David’s beat up on the Goliath’s for a change, which is the way things have played out this year. The reality though is that based on the current MLB system, it is normally best to be a fan of a deep pocketed owner.
Addendum: The Data
Our BP analysis was based on the data in the table below. Note the following about the data used in our BP analysis:
- The source of our data from 1996–2021 comes from a USA Today-based opening-day payroll archive on fueledbysports.com. The 2022–2025 ranks come from USA Today and AP opening-day figures.
- Payroll rankings vary by source, usually by a spot or two. For example, Baseball America, for example, lists the 2015 Royals and 2017 Astros as 17th by opening-day payroll, versus 16th and 18th here.
- Recent years vary more because of deferred contracts. In 2024, USA Today ranked the Dodgers 3rd, but a present-value measure like AP’s puts them lower.
- These are opening-day payrolls. They don’t reflect trade-deadline spending, which can raise a contender’s final payroll.
| Year | ALCS Teams | NLCS Teams | World Series winner |
| 1996 | Yankees (1), Orioles (2) | Braves (3), Cardinals (10) | Yankees (1) |
| 1997 | Indians (3), Orioles (2) | Marlins (5), Braves (4) | Marlins (5) |
| 1998 | Yankees (2), Indians (6) | Padres (9), Braves (4) | Yankees (2) |
| 1999 | Yankees (1), Red Sox (6) | Braves (3), Mets (7) | Yankees (1) |
| 2000 | Yankees (1), Mariners (14) | Mets (6), Cardinals (11) | Yankees (1) |
| 2001 | Yankees (1), Mariners (11) | D-backs (8), Braves (6) | D-backs (8) |
| 2002 | Angels (15), Twins (27) | Giants (10), Cardinals (13) | Angels (15) |
| 2003 | Yankees (1), Red Sox (6) | Marlins (25), Cubs (11) | Marlins (25) |
| 2004 | Red Sox (2), Yankees (1) | Cardinals (11), Astros (12) | Red Sox (2) |
| 2005 | White Sox (13), Angels (5) | Astros (12), Cardinals (6) | White Sox (13) |
| 2006 | Tigers (14), Athletics (21) | Cardinals (11), Mets (5) | Cardinals (11) |
| 2007 | Red Sox (2), Indians (23) | Rockies (25), D-backs (26) | Red Sox (2) |
| 2008 | Rays (29), Red Sox (4) | Phillies (13), Dodgers (8) | Phillies (13) |
| 2009 | Yankees (1), Angels (6) | Phillies (7), Dodgers (9) | Yankees (1) |
| 2010 | Rangers (27), Yankees (1) | Giants (10), Phillies (4) | Giants (10) |
| 2011 | Rangers (13), Tigers (10) | Cardinals (11), Brewers (17) | Cardinals (11) |
| 2012 | Tigers (5), Yankees (1) | Giants (7), Cardinals (9) | Giants (7) |
| 2013 | Red Sox (4), Tigers (5) | Cardinals (11), Dodgers (2) | Red Sox (4) |
| 2014 | Royals (19), Orioles (15) | Giants (7), Cardinals (13) | Giants (7) |
| 2015 | Royals (16), Blue Jays (10) | Mets (21), Cubs (13) | Royals (16) |
| 2016 | Indians (23), Blue Jays (13) | Cubs (6), Dodgers (1) | Cubs (6) |
| 2017 | Astros (18), Yankees (2) | Dodgers (1), Cubs (8) | Astros (18) |
| 2018 | Red Sox (1), Astros (11) | Dodgers (3), Brewers (26) | Red Sox (1) |
| 2019 | Astros (5), Yankees (3) | Nationals (4), Cardinals (10) | Nationals (4) |
| 2020 | Rays (27), Astros (4) | Dodgers (2), Braves (13) | Dodgers (2) |
| 2021 | Astros (7), Red Sox (3) | Braves (13), Dodgers (1) | Braves (13) |
| 2022 | Astros (10), Yankees (3) | Phillies (4), Padres (5) | Astros (10) |
| 2023 | Rangers (9), Astros (11) | D-backs (19), Phillies (4) | Rangers (9) |
| 2024 | Yankees (2), Guardians (28) | Dodgers (3), Mets (1) | Dodgers (3) |
| 2025 | Blue Jays (5), Mariners (16) | Dodgers (2), Brewers (23) | Dodgers (2) |