No Game for Old Men

Leonard “Bones” McCoy: Admiral, wouldn’t it be easier to put an experienced crew back on the ship?
James T. Kirk: Galloping around the cosmos is a game for the young, Doctor. From the movie: Star Trek: The Wrath of Khan

Evidently, so is the game of baseball.

We examined the current, top 100 position players in terms of OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) in the major leagues and only one player (Freddie Freeman (age 36)) from that list was more than 35 years of age.  Interestingly enough, the average age of these top 100 OPS position players is 27.9, while only 25 of the top 100 are more than 30 years old.

Despite that fact, owners still continue to hand out big money contracts to some star players, which extends well beyond their age 35 season.

The table (click on the arrow to see data) shows some of the largest contracts in major league history and how much clubs have shelled out in what have been or likely will be the least productive years of these players’ careers, beyond age 35.

Player	Team	Total Value	Contract Length (Yrs)	Year Signed	Thru Age	Pymts after Age 35	Notes
Juan Soto	NYM	$765M	15	2024	40	$230M
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	$700M	10	2023	38	$6M**	**Plus $680M of deferred money through age 48
Vlad Guerrero Jr.	TOR	$500M	14	2025	40	$147M
Mike Trout	ANA	$427M	12	2019	38	$106M
Mookie Betts	LAD	$365M	12	2020	39	$91M**	**Plus $115M of deferred money through age 51
Aaron Judge	NYY	$360M	9	2022	39	$160M
Manny Machado	SDP	$350M	11	2023	40	$200M
Francisco Lindor	NYM	$341M	10	2021	37	$54M**	**Plus $50M of deferred money through age 47
Bryce Harper	PHI	$330M	13	2019	38	$66M
Corey Seager	TEX	$325M	10	2021	37	$62M
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	$325M	13	2014	38	$642M
Rafael Devers	BOS	$314M	10	2023	36	$29M**	**Plus $71M of deferred money through age 46
Alex Rodriguez*	NYY	$275M	10	2007	41	$145M
Miguel Cabrera*	DET	$248M	8	2014	41	$162M
Xander Bogaerts	SD	$280M	11	2022	40	$127M
Trea Turner	PHI	$300M	11	2022	40	$136M
Albert Pujols*	ANA	$240M	10	2011	41	$165M
Robinson Canó*	SEA	$240M	10	2013	40	$96M

Out of the four retired players on the list, we note that none of them played at a level near their prior prime years and in some cases were released early due to their lack of production.

Alex Rodriguez – Overall, Rodriguez provided some sporadic output after age 35, but mostly his production dwindled significantly compared to what the Yankees were paying him at the time.  For example, although Rodriguez delivered a decent performance in 2012 (18 HRs, 57 RBIs, .783 OPS), that was not good value for the Yankees as they paid him $29M that year.  That following year (2013) was injury marred and he only appeared in 44 games while his production in that limited time dropped even further while earning $28M.  In 2014 Rodriguez was suspended for Performance Enhancement Drug (PED) usage, but his production surprisingly did jump in 2015 season (age 39) which earned him an all-star nod. The club released him in 2016 after only 65 games, 9 HRs, 31 RBIs and a .200 average which cost the Yankees a total of $42M for the remainder of 2016 and 2017 (a year which he did not play at all). 

Miguel Cabrera – A prolific home run hitter, during his heyday, Cabrera’s production dropped precipitously even before age 36.  In fact, the eight-year extension he signed with the Tigers marked a complete drop in value compared to his earlier years.  During the prime of his career, Cabrera regularly put up more than 30 HR’s and in excess of 100 RBIs each season, while producing an OPS average of at least .800 and normally over .900.  Instead from age 34 in 2017 until his last year at age 40 in 2023 he never hit more than 16 HRs, 75 RBIs and except for 2018 never sported an OPS over .800.  Safe to say he was a shell of his former self in the back half of his career.  The Tigers ended up paying him $8M in 2024 to not play, rather than picking up his $32M option, which turned out to be a no-brainer for management.

Albert Pujols – His age 36 season in 2016 was productive with 31 HRs, 119 RBIs and a .780 OPS, but the numbers dropped markedly throughout his later years.  From 2017 through 2021, he did not record an OPS higher than .734 and for most of that time his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) viewed him as a negative player.  Unlike most players though, Pujols story has an interesting ending.  Going nowhere with the Angels, he was released and picked up by the crosstown Dodgers at the age of 41 in 2021.  That half season with the Dodgers turned out to be a renaissance for Pujols, who surprised everyone in his final year upon his return to the St. Louis Cardinals.  In his last season, in only 351 plate appearances, Pujols banged 24 homers, 68 RBIs, and registered an .895 OPS, which also earned him an all-star nod.  Important to remember was that Pujols’ mega-contract (averaging about $30M per year with the Angels) had already expired and the Cardinals signed him on a final one-year contract in 2022 of just $2.5 million.

Robinson Canó – His output at age 35 in 2018 was very good, but only over 80 games as he was suspended for much of the year for taking PEDs in violation of major league policy.  That led to the Mariners trading Canó the following year to the Mets. A disappointing year followed in 2019 and a slightly better year in 2020, but once again Canó tested positive for PEDs by the next off season and was suspended for the entire 2021 campaign.  The 2022 season (age 39) was a disaster for Canó as he generated only 1 HR, 4 RBIs and a .373 OPS in just 33 games for three different teams.  In the end, the Mets had to pay Canó more than $23M in 2022 for just 12 games and 43 plate appearances, and then released him. The Mets were still responsible for another $24M in 2023 at the age of 40, which Canó sat out completely.

Overall, the lesson is clear, performance for the most part sharply declines in the average ball player beyond the age of 35.  The promise of production early on should not be expected in the twilight of a player’s career no matter how well they performed in their prime.  Thus major league owners would best heed that financial investment axiom that states, “past performance is not indicative of future results”.  The same is obviously true for major league ball players.