Stolen Bases*

The number of stolen bases in baseball has fluctuated greatly over time.  Some of those periods and the causes of those fluctuations include:

• The Dead-ball era (1900 – 1920): the total number of stolen bases increased due to the sharp decrease in home runs as most clubs turned to a small ball strategy.
• 1930’s – 1950’s: a decrease of stolen bases primarily due to the rise of power hitting and home runs, which shifted the focus of offensive strategies (sounds familiar?). Additionally, managerial philosophies began to favor fewer stolen bases as teams adapted to changes in pitching and scoring dynamics.
• Mid-1970’s: there was again an uptick in stolen bases due to a renewed emphasis on speed and athleticism.

The latest change in stolen base activity occurred with the introduction of analytics into the game in the early 2000’s. Prior to that, in the 1990’s there were regularly more than 3,000 successful stolen bases recorded each year in baseball.  From 2002 through 2019 though, there were only two years that exceeded 3,000 stolen bases. That drop continued and in 2021 and 2022 there were only 2,214 and 2,487 stolen bases, respectively.

Therefore, changes in strategy have dictated the level of stolen bases throughout its history, up until 2023.  That was the year that baseball decided to change their rules to limit the number of times a pitcher could step off and attempt to pick a runner off a base.  Prior to this rule change, we could attribute fluctuations in stolen bases between periods solely to teams changing their strategy.  That rule change now limits the pitcher to a maximum of two pickoff attempts.  If the pitcher attempts to pickoff the baserunner a third time a balk will be called and the umpire will automatically award the runner the next base, unless the pitcher successfully picks off the baserunner.

Our post here though is not to rehash the history of stolen bases.  If our readers want a full and thorough analysis of stolen bases throughout baseball’s history, please refer to this excellent article by the Society of Baseball Research.  Rather our focus is to point out that the 2023 rule change has artificially increased stolen bases. There has been an average of 3,520 stolen bases per year since implementing the new rule, as compared to the 2,327 average steals per year in the prior three years (excluding the shortened 2020 Covid year). Thus, this rule change and not a change in strategy has led to a 51% increase in the number of successful steals in the comparable three-year periods.

MLB and many fans celebrate the rule change, but implementation of the change was more to speed up the games by limiting the number of pickoff attempts and as a by-product this has led to an increase in stolen bases. We would guess that those in favor of this rule change see this as a win-win. Faster games and more stolen bases.

BP does not see it that way.  Instead, baseball is a game that obtains its greatness from its comparability as the rules have survived pretty much untouched throughout its history until the radical rule changes implemented in 2023 to marginally speed up a game yet alter it forever by taking a torch to its comparability. For example, the greatest modern day base stealer was Rickey Henderson who holds the all-time record for stolen bases in his career with 1,406 and has the second most steals in a single season with 130.  What type of stolen base numbers would Henderson have produced if he was operating under these new rules? It seems well within the realm of possibility that he would have had more than 2,000 stolen bases and could have topped more than 200 in a year if operating under these new rules.  Furthermore, how will we judge the next stolen base leader, since with this new rule it is just a matter of time when the season and all time stolen base records will eventually fall?

If you do not believe that comparability is an issue, just look at the home run record in baseball.  Fans continue to be up in arms about the home run record and who is the true king. Is it Barry Bonds with 762 or Hank Aaron with 755?  Based on numbers it is obviously Bonds, but due to his use of steroids many fans refuse to acknowledge him as the all-time home run champion. If such a dispute can arise out of something as subjective as the use of a drug that may or may not have benefited Bonds to achieve this feat, then why should we expect any less of an argument when someone comes along someday and breaks the stolen base records under these new rules?

Baseball more than any other sports is a game measured and loved based on its statistics. Those statistics and their history should be honored not by creating new rules and disrespecting the integrity and comparability of the game. MLB’s rules’ meddling suggests that the future base stealing record will require an asterisk. Whether history assigns that asterisk officially or unofficially is not the question. Instead, the question for this and all other rule changes is why is MLB tampering with the game and its history at all?

Addendum: Stolen Base Statistics

The top ten all-time stolen base leaders in Major League Baseball history are:

1. Rickey Henderson – 1,406 steals
2. Lou Brock – 938 steals
3. Billy Hamilton – 914 steals
4. Ty Cobb – 897 steals
5. Tim Raines – 808 steals
6. Vince Coleman – 752 steals
7. Arlie Latham – 742 steals
8. Eddie Collins – 741 steals
9. Max Carey – 738 steals
10. Honus Wagner – 723 steals

The top ten single-season stolen base leaders in Major League Baseball history are:

1. Hugh Nicol – 138 steals (1887)
2. Rickey Henderson – 130 steals (1982)
3. Arlie Latham – 129 steals (1887)
4. Lou Brock – 118 steals (1974)
5. Charlie Comiskey – 117 steals (1887)
6. Billy Hamilton – 111 steals (1889)
7. Billy Hamilton – 111 steals (1891)
8. John Ward – 111 steals (1887)
9. Vince Coleman – 110 steals (1985)
10. Vince Coleman – 109 steals (1987)